HCS Season 1 Finals Bracket Preview/Breakdown/Predictions

If you're reading this blog you probably know the PAX East HCS Season 1 championship is this weekend, starting tomorrow. I've posted my predictions on forums, but I wanted to give an in-depth preview of the bracket and my predictions throughout the bracket with explanations on a gametype-by-gametype basis.

The event starts off with a play-in match between European Wildcard qualifier Vibe and 8^th seed Noble Black, a team that came together after UGC St. Louis, starting from scratch with 0 points and managing to qualify for the finals with only online cup results and a top 12 finish at Gamers for Giving. Some people think Noble Black is lucky to be at the event, but their consistent placements online definitely earned their spot.

So without further ado... Play-In Gametypes:

• 3 Flag Shrine
• Slayer Warlord
• Oddball Lockdown
• Bomb Warlord
• Slayer Shrine

There are two possibilities for how this match will play out, depending upon just how good the European teams actually are. 3 Flag Shrine will go to Noble Black, period. Noble Black show up when it comes to Shrine gametypes, and Sanc has always been a map that Maniac thrives on. If Vibe are stronger than I'm giving them credit for, they can take Slayer Warlord and Lockdown Ball, but I'm hesitant to even give them those as a possibility. If the series manages to go to games 4 and 5, Warlord Bomb will go the way of Noble Black thanks to Arkanum's control of ramp portals during bomb pushes, and Slayer Shrine will once again go in Noble Black's favor. Because Shrine. I'm conservatively predicting a Noble Black 3-2, but I really think it will be a 3-0 in their favor. That team is better than their seed, despite the GFG choke.

That takes us to Winners Bracket Round 1.

• Flag Warlord
• Slayer Shrine
• KotH Lockdown
• Flag Shrine
• Slayer Warlord

Evil Geniuses vs Noble Black

Roy and Snipedown on-host on Warlord? Noble Black has no chance taking game 1. Slayer Shrine is their best chance to prevent a 3-0, but I think Roy's aggression and willingness to challenge anything will throw APG off his game and overwhelm Noble Black. Evil Geniuses probably won't drop a Lockdown King game for the entire event. 3-0 EG. It's a long shot to predict the series going to a game 5, but even if it does, it's another Warlord gametype on EG's host. EG will not lose this series.

CLG vs eLevate

Ogre 2's penchant for portal control will be too big a thorn in eLevate's side for them to handle in game 1. Add on CLG's host for it being a Warlord gametype, and you've got a recipe for a 5-0 or 5-1 win for CLG in game 1. eLevate take host in game 2 on Shrine TS, one of their best maps/gametypes, so they have a good chance at victory in game 2. eLevate and CLG both struggle a bit on Lockdown King, but between Heinz and Ogre 2, CLG have much better objective players and will take game 3 for sure. If eLevate does get the upset in game 2, they'll have a good shot at pulling off a victory in game 4 which is their absolute best gametype, Shrine Flag. I don't see them winning either gametype, and even if they do, game 5 is a Warlord, CLG's best, on CLG's host. 3-0 CLG actual prediction, possibility for 3-2 in CLG's favor if eLevate plays their hearts out.

Denial vs Str8 Rippin

Ryanoob's grenades and portal shenanigans will be too much for Str8 on Warlord Flag. Their BRs are good enough to make this a fight for Denial, but it won't be enough. Game 2 I actually give Str8 the benefit of the doubt and think Naded will come up huge for a surprise win. Str8's key to victory will be to keep the game fast and chaotic – don't let stalemates evolve. The less structured the game is, the more it's in Str8's favor. However, games 3 and 4 on Lockdown King and Shrine Flag will secure the series for Denial.

OpTic vs C9

This is the series I am least confident in predicting. Cloud 9 are an enormous question mark that depend entirely on how hot their shot is and how cool Hysteria's head is. Flag Warlord favors Cloud 9 – their shots are stronger and they'll outslay OpTic regardless of the result. However, due to C9's questionable decision making on flag routes, I have OpTic taking game 1. Game 2 is Shrine Slayer. Everyone on C9 plays Shrine well...except for Ninja. Ninja's poor positioning and hyper-aggressive playstyle on the gametype leads him to 15+ deaths per game on the gametype. OpTic will win a close game 2, with Ninja probably in negative numbers. King of the Hill Lockdown is another gametype that could go either way. I have OpTic winning it, but no confidence in the pick. If the series DOES go to game 4 or 5, C9's chances of winning the series skyrocket, as Shrine Flag is much more suited to their playstyle, and a Warlord Slayer to close out the series is the perfect gametype for them to shut down OpTic.

Predictions:

EG 3-0 Noble Black (Confidence: 90%)

CLG 3-0 eLevate (Confidence: 80%)

Denial 3-1 Str8 Rippin (Confidence: 85%)

OpTic 3-0 C9 (Confidence: 10%)

Which brings us to Winners Bracket Round 2 / Losers Bracket Round 1. They both have the same gametypes.

• Oddball Warlord
• Slayer Lockdown
• Bomb Shrine
• KotH Warlord
• Slayer Shrine

Evil Geniuses vs OpTic

Warlord on EG's host should favor them, but I have OpTic pulling off a game 1 victory here. Big performance out of Contra will fuel an OpTic set-up that will give them just enough of an edge to squeak the victory. Lockdown Slayer will be the Snipedown show, while Bomb Shrine will remind everyone just how strong Roy is...again. Back on Warlord off EG's host, EG will exact revenge with the momentum from the previous wins. 3-1 EG.

CLG vs Denial

Warlord Ball. CLG's best map vs Denial's grenades. I have Denial edging CLG out in this one, but it could go either way. Snakebite will determine who wins this game. Slayer Lockdown I give the edge to Ogre 2 and CLG's patience. Once again, Denial wants a structured slayer game where Ryanoob can out-think his opponents. If Royal 2 can misposition enough that it keeps spawns hectic, CLG can strong-arm their way to victory. Bomb Shrine I'm giving to CLG on the back of Royal 2's Sniper. Heinz MVP. Warlord King goes to Denial's host and Ryanoob's grenades. Game 5 on Slayer Shrine – some say CLG is weak on Shrine. However, I think they'll cling to an early lead and manage to trade kills evenly enough that they crawl to victory. 3-2 CLG.

eLevate vs Str8 Rippin

Oddball Warlord on Str8's host. Giving it to Str8. Lockdown Slayer. Assuming eLevate can shake off the game 1 loss, either Gabriel or Spartan will catch fire in game 2. That momentum will carry over into game 3 on Bomb Shrine and eLevate will push ahead to a 2-1 lead. Back on Warlord with eLevate's host, I give them a slight edge. Not completely confident they'll win game 4, but I do predict them to do so. If the game goes to Game 5, eLevate still hold the edge despite Str8's host, as Shrine is their most comfortable gametype. 3-1 eLevate.

C9 vs Noble Black

Oddball Warlord on Cloud 9's host favors Cloud 9 rather heavily. APG is the key for Noble Black to pull off an upset here. Game 1 could go either way, but I'm picking C9. Slayer Lockdown is nightmare fuel for Noble Black after GFG. If they couldn't manage to shut down the Suddoths on the gametype on their own host, why would I expect them to shut down C9? Fortunately Game 3 puts them on Shrine, Bomb. Noble Black will take game 3 with Maniac's Shrine play. Warlord King on Noble Black's host is a game that could also go either way – I'm still giving the slight edge to Cloud 9, and predicting them to take the game and close the series 3-1 here. HOWEVER, if Noble Black can take either game 1 or game 4, Noble Black will win the series 3-2 as game 5 will put them on C9's worst gametype and one of their personal bests, Shrine Slayer.

Predictions:

WR2

EG 3-1 OpTic (95% Confidence)

CLG 3-2 Denial (75% Confidence)

LR1

eLevate 3-1 Str8 (70% Confidence)

C9 3-1 Noble Black (30% Confidence)

Winners Bracket Finals / Losers Round 2

• Bomb Warlord
• Slayer Shrine
• KotH Lockdown
• Flag Warlord
• Slayer Lockdown

Evil Geniuses vs CLG

Warlord Bomb will be a tooth and nail fight between EG's host and CLG playing on their best map. I give CLG a slight edge, but this game will be hard to predict. Slayer Shrine will favor EG. Once again, Roy's aggression will lend them the advantage. Lockdown King again leans in favor of EG – their roster is just better equipped for King of the Hill gametypes in general. I'll never count out Lunchbox in a KotH gametype. Game 4 goes back to Warlord on CLG's host, which favors CLG. Series closes out on Lockdown TS, where I give the edge to Snipedown's route-taking and EG's host. 3-2 EG.

eLevate vs OpTic

Warlord Bomb will be on OpTic's host. eLevate have the skill to beat OpTic, but Flamesword and Assault's communication will be the difference maker in game 1. Slayer Shrine will depend on who has the hotter Sniper between the two teams, but I give the slight edge to eLevate. Game 3 goes to eLevate's weakest gametype, Lockdown King of the Hill. OpTic should have no trouble wresting that game from eLevate's hands and potentially putting eLevate on tilt going into game 4. Although Game 4 will be eLevate's host on Warlord Flag, I think OpTic will play with an annoying enough playstyle to keep eLevate off their gameplan and close the series. 3-1 OpTic. If the game goes to Game 5, it will be another game depending entirely on standoff Sniping, meaning the game will either be in the hands of Ace or Munoz, depending on which team holds the rifle.

Denial vs Cloud 9

Warlord Bomb will be a tough game to call between superior firepower and smarter play. I give Denial the edge in game 1. Shrine Slayer will be yet another everyone-does-well-but-Ninja-plays-too-fast-and-the-team-loses for Cloud 9. If he can let off the gas pedal they may be able to stop Denial, but his death count will be the nail in the coffin for game 2. Lockdown King favors Denial, though Mikwen's occasional tendency to overstay at past hills may give C9 some beneficial spawns. I still think Denial will take the victory in game 3, and close the series 3-0. However, if C9 take any of the first 3, they'll have the edge in Game 4 with host on Warlord and have the potential to push to a Game 5 Slayer on Lockdown, which could also go either way. Still, I don't think it will reach that point. Denial should have no problem making their way to Losers Round 3.

Predictions:

WBF:

EG 3-2 CLG (80% Confidence)

LR2:

OpTic 3-1 eLevate (95% Confidence)

Denial 3-0 Cloud 9 (70% Confidence)

Losers Round 3

• Flag Warlord
• Slayer Lockdown
• Bomb Shrine
• Oddball Lockdown
• Slayer Warlord

OpTic vs Denial

Denial's host and grenades on Warlord face off against OpTic's superior communication and teamwork. It will be a close game that will probably go to time, with a low score. I predict a 3-2 flag victory for OpTic in game 1. Game 2 goes to Slayer Lockdown, where I think Flamesword will have a rough game and Denial will take advantage. Game 3 on Bomb Shrine I put in the hands of Ace's sniper to free up pushes to push OpTic ahead in the series 2-1. Oddball Lockdown will highlight Ryanoob's clever objective movement and awareness of his teammates' positioning as Denial makes set-ups out of nothing and tie the series, pushing it to a hype game 5 on Warlord Slayer. Denial's host, grenades, and Mikwen's BR will secure Denial's 3^rd place finish with a wider margin of victory than would be expected for a game 5.

Denial 3-2 OpTic (Confidence: 75%)

Losers Bracket Finals

• Oddball Lockdown
• Slayer Warlord
• Flag Shrine
• Bomb Warlord
• Slayer Shrine

CLG vs Denial

Oddball Lockdown could go either way. I give a slight edge to Denial, but I think big plays out of Heinz and Snakebite will lock the game up for CLG. Slayer Warlord on Denial's host will present a fairly even match-up, but Ogre 2's portal control versus Ryanoob's portal shenanigans will go the way of the veteran Ogre 2 and CLG countering logic. Game 3 on Shrine Flag will come down to whether or not Cloud and Mikwen can shut down Royal 2, but I think Heinz's tendency to always be there to help a teammate will push CLG past Denial with a series sweep in 3 close games. Should the series go to game 4, CLG still have the edge on their best map, but Denial can still put up a solid fight in Bomb Warlord. Slayer Shrine will come down to whoever can win the standoff Sniper duels. Still, my prediction...

CLG 3-0 Denial (Confidence: 40%)

Grand Finals

• Flag Shrine
• Slayer Lockdown
• Bomb Warlord
• Oddball Lockdown
• Slayer Warlord

Evil Geniuses vs CLG

Game 1 will be a tooth and nail fight between the two teams and I'm expecting a 1-1 tie at the end of regulation. I think this game will be won by a counter-cap after CLG barely put together a flag stop to save themselves from losing. That momentum won't help going into Game 2, however. Snipedown on Lockdown will push CLG past their limits. Bomb on Warlord on EG's host will still lean in CLG's favor, but solid slaying out of both teams will make it close. I once again give CLG the victory on this gametype. Oddball Lockdown goes back into the hands of EG, with coordinating plays from Towey stopping any push CLG attempts to make to break a set-up. Game 5 is a recipe for a 50-49 finish – but I think CLG will pull out all the stops and manage to emerge victorious in the set and reset the bracket.

Predicting CLG 3-2 EG, with about 50% Confidence.

Grand Finals Set 2

• Bomb Warlord
• Slayer Shrine
• KotH Lockdown
• Flag Shrine
• Slayer Lockdown

Evil Geniuses vs CLG

Bomb Warlord again? Okay, well it's EG's turn to win right? Nope, Warlord Bomb 3 straight victories for CLG this event. Shrine Slayer should favor EG, but with CLG on host and wearing on EG's nerves with the extended series and pressure of a grand finals, I think Ogre 2's experience wins out. Game 3 onto KotH Lockdown will be EG's chance to come back into the series, and I expect them to take the game due to Royal 2 flubbing with spawn control and Lunchbox's superior positioning to zone players off the hill. Game 4 on Shrine Flag will be either the game Snipedown catches fire or CLG puts the final nail in the coffin. EG will need to outslay CLG to come back into the series. I predict CLG to win this set 3-1, but should the series go to Game 5, the setting will be Lockdown Slayer where spawn control, host, and Snipedown's route-taking will favor EG.

Predicting CLG 3-1 EG, with about 25% Confidence.

Either way, I'm quite confident the Grand Finals will be a match between the two GoodGame Agency teams, and the real winners of the event will be Alex Garfield and Kelby May for the exposure they get out of the Halo audience. Regardless of who wins, this season finals stage is set to have some fantastic series with some wiggle room for upsets, and great positioning to prepare for what's to come in Season 2.

Thank you for reading!